Major Hydrocarbon Field Discovered in Kazakhstan
A major hydrocarbon field has been discovered in Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Region, with reserves potentially comparable to those of the Kashagan oil field, the country’s largest oil source, according to Kurmangazy Iskaziyev, First Deputy Chairman of the Management Board of KazMunayGas.
The site is located on the Zhylyoi Platform near the Caspian Sea coast. Its onshore location could significantly reduce development costs, although the deposits are believed to lie at considerable depths.
Kashagan has long stood as the symbol of both Kazakhstan’s oil wealth and the technical difficulty of extracting it. The offshore field cemented the country’s position as a major crude producer, but also became known for cost overruns, delays, and the engineering challenges of operating in the northern Caspian. Any onshore discovery mentioned in the same breath immediately raises expectations that it could avoid some of those constraints while delivering comparable scale.
Kashagan, discovered in the northern Caspian Sea, remains one of the largest oil fields found globally in recent decades. Its recoverable reserves are estimated at 9–13 billion barrels of oil, with gas reserves exceeding 1 trillion cubic meters. Development is carried out by the North Caspian Operating Company consortium, which includes Shell, TotalEnergies, ExxonMobil, Eni, China National Petroleum Corporation, Inpex, and KazMunayGas.
Speaking at the Geoscience & Exploration Central Asia forum, Iskaziyev said the resource potential of the Zhylyoi Block, including Karaton, Kazhygali, and Zhylyoi, is estimated at 4.7 billion tons, with total geological potential reaching up to 20 billion tons of oil equivalent.
At this stage, such figures reflect geological potential rather than proven, recoverable reserves. In Kazakhstan, as elsewhere, moving from estimate to production depends on depth, pressure, sulfur content, and the cost of drilling and processing. Large discoveries can take years to confirm commercially, particularly in high-pressure or technically complex formations.
KazMunayGas has already begun exploration work. A well 5,750 meters deep has been drilled at the Karaton site, and five promising targets have been identified as part of a joint project with Tatneft. During testing at one of these sites, a gas flow containing hydrogen sulfide was recorded.
The main challenge remains the depth of the deposits, which may reach up to 9 km. According to Iskaziyev, these conditions are comparable to projects undertaken by KazMunayGas’s Chinese partners, including Sinopec and China National Petroleum Corporation, where drilling depths can reach up to 11 km.
The company plans to expand geological exploration into neighboring areas, including Kazhygali, and is negotiating subsoil use contracts. The timing is significant. Kazakhstan is under growing pressure to demonstrate that its oil sector can still deliver major new projects as existing fields mature. A large onshore discovery in Atyrau would reinforce the region’s role as the core of the country’s energy system and support efforts to sustain export volumes and investor interest. At the forum, a memorandum of understanding was also signed between KazMunayGas and BP on cooperation in geological exploration and the development of the Ustyurt Block in the Mangistau Region. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that Kazakhstan is involved in an international arbitration dispute with the North Caspian Operating Company consortium over environmental issues related to the Kashagan project.That dispute reflects a broader pattern. Kazakhstan’s experience with Kashagan shows that giant oil projects rarely develop smoothly. The field brought vast reserves but also years of delays, technical setbacks, and regulatory friction. That legacy is likely to shape how officials and investors approach any new discovery presented as a potential peer to the country’s largest oil asset.
Central Asia Pushes Back on “Not Free” Label as Debate Over Rankings Grows
According to Freedom House’s Freedom in the World 2026 report, all five countries in Central Asia are classified as “Not Free.” Nevertheless, governments in the region are increasingly questioning the impartiality of such assessments. At the same time, some regional experts point to ongoing political and economic reforms as signs that the region is making progress. A “Not Free” Region In its report released on March 19, 2026, Freedom House classifies all five Central Asian states as "Not Free." The designation is based on Freedom House’s assessment of political rights and civil liberties. According to the report’s authors, the ranking reflects pressure on independent media, tightening control over civil society, and the absence of genuine political competition. Kazakhstan received 23 points out of 100. The report highlights restrictions on opposition groups and civil society activists, pressure on independent journalism, and tightly managed elections that do not ensure genuine political competition. Kyrgyzstan, long considered the most politically open country in the region, scored 25 out of 100 and was also classified as “Not Free.” The organization says the score fell by one point from the previous year, reflecting continued pressure on independent media, the designation of several outlets as ‘extremist,’ and criminal cases against journalists, alongside concerns about election integrity. Uzbekistan scored 12 out of 100. Freedom House points to the concentration of power in the executive branch, the absence of a genuine parliamentary opposition, and severe restrictions on independent human rights defenders and journalists. Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016, Uzbekistan has pursued a series of controlled political and economic reforms aimed at opening the country after decades of isolation. These have included currency liberalization, efforts to end the use of forced labor in the cotton sector, and steps to ease restrictions on business and foreign investment. While critics say political liberalization remains limited, supporters argue the reforms mark a significant shift from the policies of the previous era. Tajikistan received just 5 points. The report highlights the long rule of President Emomali Rahmon, the elimination of legal opposition, systematic persecution of its members and their families, and a de facto lack of electoral competition. Turkmenistan recorded one of the lowest scores globally, with just 1 point. The report describes the country as one of the most repressive in the world, citing total state control over political life and the media, the absence of opposition participation in elections, and harsh punishment for dissent. Turkmenistan remains one of the most closed countries in the world, with extremely limited access for foreign media and independent observers. Political life is tightly controlled, and reliable information about internal developments is scarce. While the authorities have signaled gradual generational change following the 2022 transfer of power to President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, there has been little visible shift in the country’s political system. Impartiality in Doubt? Trust in international assessments has also been affected by developments in U.S. foreign aid policy and a wider shift in global perceptions about the appropriateness of Western-linked organizations categorising the political and social systems of Global South countries. In January 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order suspending new U.S. foreign development assistance, including funding for the United States Agency for International Development. The administration later moved to terminate 5,800 of 6,200 USAID contract awards, according to a State Department memo reported by AP in February 2025. USAID has previously supported analytical and reporting work in Central Asia through grants to journalists, activists, and researchers. The agency has funded programs and reporting focused on governance and freedoms in Central Asia. In Kazakhstan, members of parliament called for a comprehensive audit of USAID-funded programs. Publicly available data indicates that USAID allocated around $2 million to support human rights and equality initiatives in Central Asia between 2022 and 2025. Criticism of USAID from senior U.S. officials has reinforced long-standing skepticism in the region toward external evaluations. Some policymakers argue that even long-established organizations assessing democracy and freedoms may themselves be subject to deeply rooted institutional bias. Such skepticism is not new. Governments in Central Asia have frequently questioned why domestic reforms and legislative changes are not fully reflected in international rankings. Human rights organizations, however, have maintained that restrictions on political opposition, media, and civil society in Central Asia remain well-documented and systemic. Allegations of Bias In 2025, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev publicly criticized international organizations, including the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE), questioning their objectivity. “I do not care about the assessments made by the OSCE, because this organization is very biased,” Tokayev said in response to criticism of recent elections. At the same time, he emphasized that Kazakhstan remains an active OSCE member and continues to cooperate with European partners. Tokayev also expressed skepticism toward recent assessments by Human Rights Watch, stating that the country should not necessarily follow the recommendations of human rights organizations. In the same 2026 Freedom House ranking, China received 9 points. China is currently Central Asia’s largest economic partner and a major global competitor to the European Union and the United States. Freedom House is headquartered in Washington, and the organization has historically received substantial U.S. government funding for its broader operations, prompting questions in the region about the neutrality of such assessments. Freedom House says its Freedom in the World 2026 report received no government funding. Democratic Reforms At the same time, some Western observers have viewed reforms in Uzbekistan positively. In September 2025, Detlef Prinz, president of the Germany-Uzbekistan Forum, noted growing international recognition of reforms under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Prinz pointed to what he described as significant positive changes in Uzbekistan, which he said have been well received in German political and business circles. Following the constitutional referendum of March 15, 2026, the Kazakh authorities said parliament would review a package of new laws and related amendments to implement the new constitution. Five constitutional laws have been submitted to parliament, aimed at reshaping the balance of power, including presidential authority and parliamentary structures. A new advisory body, the Khalyq Keneşi (People's Council of Kazakhstan), is also expected to be created, bringing together representatives of civil society and public institutions. In Kyrgyzstan, meanwhile, the country’s former reputation as an “island of freedom” has come with significant political instability. Three revolutions have occurred since independence in 1991, and recurring elite power struggles have hindered sustained economic reform. According to some analysts, current President Sadyr Japarov is pursuing a more centralized model of governance in an attempt to project an image of stability that Kyrgyzstan has, to date, failed to maintain in the eyes of international investors. Thus, the situation regarding rights and freedoms in Central Asia is far more complex than it may appear from an “outside perspective,” and questions are increasingly being raised about the appropriateness of Freedom House’s methodology and how relevant such external rankings are to Central Asian countries today
Pannier and Hillard’s Spotlight on Central Asia: New Episode Coming Sunday
As Managing Editor of The Times of Central Asia, I’m delighted that, in partnership with the Oxus Society for Central Asian Affairs, from October 19, we are the home of the Spotlight on Central Asia podcast. Chaired by seasoned broadcasters Bruce Pannier of RFE/RL’s long-running Majlis podcast and Michael Hillard of The Red Line, each fortnightly instalment will take you on a deep dive into the latest news, developments, security issues, and social trends across an increasingly pivotal region. This week, the team looks at clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan and how this affects Central Asian plans for trade routes and export projects. Special guest on the show this week: - C. Christine Fair, professor in the Security Studies Program within the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, and an expert in the Pakistani military and Afghan relations.
Iran War Redraws Air Routes, Boosting Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are emerging as potential beneficiaries of disruptions in the global aviation fuel market as tensions around Iran force airlines to reroute flights and rethink transit hubs. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East, including heightened risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, has led to sharp increases in energy prices and supply disruptions. Gas prices in the EU have risen by 70%, and oil by 60%, with additional costs reaching €14 billion. Roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, making any disruption critically significant for global markets. The aviation industry has been among the hardest hit sectors. According to industry sources cited by Bloomberg, Europe is expected to have sufficient jet fuel supplies in the short term, but stocks are under pressure, and supply risks could emerge if the conflict continues. The cost of jet fuel has risen from about $742 to more than $1,700 per ton in recent weeks in some markets. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. As reported by The Telegraph, citing data from Cirium, around 7% of scheduled flights were canceled at the peak of recent disruptions, equivalent to more than 7,000 departures, compared with about 4.7% a year earlier. Airlines are responding by cutting flight schedules and revising their business models. Lufthansa, for example, is considering temporarily grounding part of its fleet. According to CEO Carsten Spohr, fuel shortages are likely to be felt first outside Europe, where supply chains are more vulnerable. At the same time, airfares have already risen by 15-20%, beginning to dampen demand. As passenger demand softens and costs rise, carriers are balancing route cuts with the need to maintain key markets. Fuel Costs Drive Route Shifts According to Sergey Agibalov, consulting director at Argus in the CIS, significant changes are also occurring in the geography of international air travel. Major Middle Eastern hubs, such as Dubai, Doha, and Abu Dhabi, have seen a decline in transit traffic amid safety concerns and are operating below normal capacity on key routes. Agibalov argues that this creates a window of opportunity for alternative routes between Europe and Asia, including Istanbul, Addis Ababa, and hubs in Central Asia and the South Caucasus. “Airports in Central Asia and the South Caucasus are now attractive not only to passengers, but also to airlines. Disruptions to Middle Eastern jet fuel exports linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz have led to a sharp rise in fuel prices globally. This increase is outpacing the rise in oil prices, intensifying pressure on airlines. Recent industry data shows prices reaching as high as $1,600–1,800 per ton in some markets. Under these conditions, many airlines have begun optimizing their flight schedules; even if fuel is available, flying has become very expensive,” he noted. Against this backdrop, airports in Almaty, Astana, and Baku are seeing increased traffic and stronger airline interest. Argus estimates suggest volumes are already rising in Baku, as routes across Central Asia and the South Caucasus take on greater importance between Europe and Asia. Fuel costs are becoming a key factor driving the redistribution of traffic flows. In Kazakhstan, jet fuel prices remain at $734-777 per ton, significantly below prices in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. For airlines operating under sharply increased costs, this creates a significant competitive advantage. Even when fuel is available elsewhere, high prices render many routes economically unviable. Kazakhstan: Focus on Production and Standards
However, Kazakhstan’s refining capacity may limit its ability to fully capitalize on these opportunities. In 2025, the country produced approximately 727,000 tons of jet fuel, covering only 70% of domestic demand, with the remainder imported primarily from Russia.
Even before the latest disruption, Kazakhstan’s aviation sector was already under pressure from fuel supply constraints, leaving airlines exposed to higher import costs.
The authorities plan to increase production to 1.7 million tons by 2032 through the modernization of the country’s largest refineries in Shymkent, Pavlodar, and Atyrau. Annual output is expected to rise by around 50,000 tons in the coming years. At the same time, Kazakhstan is transitioning to the international Jet A-1 standard, which would enable greater integration into global fuel supply chains and support more international flights. Nevertheless, analysts note that current production volumes remain insufficient to fully meet growing transit demand. The pace of infrastructure modernization will be a decisive factor. Azerbaijan: Traffic Growth and Transit Potential Azerbaijan, meanwhile, is already beginning to see gains from shifting traffic flows. Baku’s airport is experiencing increased activity amid declining volumes at Middle Eastern hubs. The country’s developed infrastructure and favorable geographic location allow it to expand its transit role relatively quickly, without requiring major structural changes. Together with Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan is part of a growing alternative aviation corridor that could temporarily replace traditional routes through the Persian Gulf. Despite these emerging opportunities, experts warn of continued uncertainty. A prolonged conflict could drive further price increases and deepen supply risks. A stabilization would likely restore Middle Eastern hubs and redirect traffic, limiting long-term gains for alternative routes.
Poems by the Kazakh Poet Abay Recited in Paris in Nine Languages
The legacy of the Kazakh poet Abay Kunanbayev recently brought together representatives of different nations in Paris. His works were recited in Kazakh, French, Russian, Chechen, Buryat, Kalmyk, Ingush, Tuvan, and Yakut. The Association of Kazakh Women in France, “QazElles,” thus supported the recently announced proposal to include Abay’s work Words of Admonition on the UNESCO World Heritage List.
“As you know, UNESCO’s headquarters are in Paris, so the news that one of Kazakhstan’s most significant literary monuments could officially become part of UNESCO’s World Heritage List is very personal to us. How can we support this? By bringing together those who are not yet familiar with Abay’s work and introducing them to his major poetic masterpieces.
This year, Abay’s works will be presented in the languages of various diasporas living in France with whom we are friends,” said Madina Kulmanova, president of the “QazElles” association, in an interview with The Times of Central Asia.
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QazElles photos archive[/caption]
The monument to Abay, located in the Poets’ Square of the French capital, has become a regular meeting place for admirers of his work since its unveiling in 2021. For Kazakhs living in France, it has become a tradition to hold the “Abay Readings” annually at the poet’s bust to promote the legacy of the founder of Kazakh written literature.
This time, Abay in Paris brought together not only Kazakh and French people, but also representatives of the peoples of the Caucasus, as well as Buryat and Kalmyk associations in France.
Said Musa Batyrgereev, a representative of the Chechen diaspora: “I am here representing the Association ‘Guardians of Mountain Cultures in France’ and as a representative of the Chechen people. Today we have gathered at the monument to Abay Kunanbayev to honor his memory. Abay was a great poet and a wise man who taught kindness, respect, and humanity. And today I would like to thank the Kazakh people from the bottom of my heart for the help and support they provided to the Chechen people in 1944. We will never forget this.”
Representatives of the “Peuple du Baïkal” association, which unites representatives of the peoples of Russia’s Baikal region, thanked the “QazElles” association for the invitation to the annual readings of Abay Kunanbayev’s poems.
In the poem they chose to read, “Quiet Night Under the Moon” (“Jelsiz tünde jaryq ai”), the poet lovingly describes the beauty of nature and the tenderness of relationships.
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QazElles photos archive[/caption]
Radmila Boyer, a representative of the association, noted that listening to Abay’s poem immerses one in a world of beauty and love.
“This poetic morning brought us, different peoples, closer together, gave us a wonderful mood, the joy of communication, and inspiration for future joint cultural projects,” she said.
Tulips were laid at the Abay monument in honor of the readings. This served as a reference to another project by the “QazElles” association, which, with the support of the Shymkent city authorities, the Embassy of Kazakhstan in France, and the City Hall of Paris’s 17th arrondissement, organized the planting of Kazakhstani tulips on Place Wagram. This spring, Shymkent tulips bloomed in Paris for the first time.
As a memento of these readings, representatives of the diaspora were presented with copies of Abay’s works in French. One of these copies was left on a bookshelf in the Poets’ Square so that Parisians, while strolling past the monument to the Kazakh poet, could also become acquainted with his work.
India–Central Asia: Connectivity, Security, and Sustainable Partnerships in a Multipolar World
A widening conflict in West Asia is forcing India and Central Asia to reassess trade routes, diplomacy, and regional security, with key projects such as Iran’s Chabahar port now facing growing uncertainty. These risks framed discussions in New Delhi on March 25–26, where experts gathered under the banner of “India–Central Asia: Connectivity, Security, and Sustainable Partnerships in a Multipolar World,” with The Times of Central Asia in attendance.
The conference unfolded against the backdrop of two active Eurasian wars—the Russo-Ukrainian and the Israel/U.S.-Iran conflict. Central Asian and Indian participants agreed that the West Asian crisis is widening, putting not only ports and logistics routes but also economies across the globe under serious threat. India's Chabahar link to Afghanistan and Central Asia is now a high-risk, uncertain investment, weakening overall continental strategic thinking across Eurasia, including efforts to consolidate new trans-Caspian trade corridors. If the conflict cripples or destroys Chabahar, years of progress, hard-won partnerships, and millions in strategic investment would be erased.
On the sidelines, some participants suggested that India could help cool what's becoming a dangerously global conflict. Unbeknownst to them, India had already held an all-party meeting on March 25 on the West Asia crisis. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar's message: India will not mediate. The revelation surprised some participants—others, not at all. In any event, Central Asian states, in principle, have backed any diplomatic push for peace.
With West Asia in turmoil and platitudes in abundance, conference participants emphasized the need to rethink geopolitics, trade, security, and cultural ties beyond stale frameworks at a time of conflict. Four themes defined the Central and South Asian moment: the dangers of bloc politics, even as regional organizations continue to evolve and expand their influence, the ascendancy of national interests over external pressure, and the emergence of a firm refusal to pick sides in the midst of frictions between competing global pressures.
Dr. Raj Kumar Sharma, a member of the India Central Asia Foundation, stated: “The conference provided an important platform to move beyond theoretical discussion and toward practical engagement. With Central Asia’s ambassadors to India present, we focused on exploring concrete mechanisms to promote peace through sustained diplomatic efforts. Despite the proximity of the conflict in West Asia to both Central Asia and India, participants expressed confidence that dialogue and restraint – buttressed by trade and investment – will ultimately guide outcomes, with particular concern for civilians and those enduring hardship. Notably, the crisis did not overshadow the conference’s primary agenda or its scholarly contributions. Overall, the gathering can be seen as a constructive step in reinforcing diplomatic initiatives dedicated to peace and stability in a conflict-affected region.”
The conference witnessed the release of three significant publications on India–Central Asia relations: India – Kazakhstan Partnership in a Changing Geopolitical Order (eds. Ramakant Dwivedi, Lalit Aggarwal, Kuralay Baizakova), Manas: Kirgiz Vir Gatha Kavya by Ramakant Dwivedi & Hemchandra Pandey and India and Central, East and Southeast Asia: Enhancing the Partnership (eds. Ramakant Dwivedi & Lalit Aggarwal).
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(L-R): Dr Anita Sengupta, Dr Arvind Gupta, Dr Pramod Kumar, Ambassador Irina Orolbaeva, Dr Rachael M. Rudolph, Dr Beena & Dr Raj Kumar Sharma, who all spoke on the role of regional institutions in Central Asian development; image: TCA[/caption]
Geopolitics in Flux – Central Asia and the Emerging Multipolar Order
At the conference, a clear theme emerged: Central Asia holds an increasingly important place in an emerging multipolar world due to its geography and resources. As conflicts and power plays intensify, especially in West Asia, countries in the region must work to reshape security, trade, and diplomacy to better promote economic development through peace.
For Central Asia and India, understanding these geopolitical shifts is key to navigating risks and maintaining stability. The conference speakers emphasized that, confronted with shared threats, India and Central Asia need even deeper collaboration with Afghanistan through intelligence sharing, training, and joint mechanisms to bolster resilience and sustain regional stability within a complex global environment – this applies equally to the Afghan-Pakistan conflict currently unfolding. All participants underscored the importance of patience, peace, and sober foreign policies, while preserving sovereign autonomy and national interests within a multi-dimensional approach to diplomacy.
The Role of Regional Institutions in Central Asian Development
The participants highlighted that there are many regional institutions in Central Asia, most of which reflect the ideas, interests and needs of external powers. The Central Asian countries need to enhance regional cooperation mechanisms among themselves so that they become the real arbiters of their aspirations and development. Dr Raj Kumar Sharma and Dr Beena, Assistant Professor at MERI Centre for International Studies, highlighted that the Central Asian countries should focus on cooperative climate governance in the region and move towards a green transition collectively. Dr. Sharma called on Central Asia and India – with the agreement of all – to unite in advancing enduring peace and sustainable progress across the region.
Trade, Connectivity and Infrastructure – Challenges and Prospects for Regional Cooperation
Without stronger connectivity, Central Asia will never reach its full potential, conference participants concurred. Central Asian participants expressed their willingness and support for further integration through active multi-vector foreign policies in order to deal with their connectivity and infrastructure challenges. Turkmenistan’s position of maintaining its non-aligned status reflects its geo-economic priorities over geo-political gamesmanship.
Unsurprisingly, the Russo-Ukraine war has reconfirmed certain vulnerabilities of Central Asian countries given their dependence on transportation limitations and longstanding external links, necessitating a reexamination of trade routes, with all options on the table. In addition, sovereign autonomy means greater intra-regional self-reliance.
Since 2018, Consultative Meeting of Heads of States in Central Asia has become the main advisory mechanism for regional cooperation. Early signs of regional cooperation include agreements on joint border management and customs simplification, discussions on shared water and energy resource management, and coordinated positions in international forums. Both Central Asian and Indian participants highlighted that India should continue to reach out to all parties to the conflict in West Asia to safeguard their economic interests in Iran – this applies immediately to Chabahar Port and to oil exports in the first instance.
On the education front, participants noted that with visa barriers going up in America and elsewhere, Indian students are looking for alternative educational markets; Central Asia, in many ways, is ideal for many because it is geographically closer to India and the fees are relatively low. Indian students have become the largest group of international students in Kazakhstan, with nearly 10,000 to 12,000 enrolled as of 2025, marking a massive 211.9% increase from 2022 levels.
India – Central Asia: Historical and Cultural Ties
The organizers stressed that centuries of trade, migration, and cultural exchange have created lasting bonds between India and Central Asia—bonds that will drive future cooperation. India and Central Asia’s ancient economic ties—forged through the Silk Road and the Kushan Empire (which linked northern India with modern Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan)—were fractured by 19th‑century colonialism. Now, experts urge a clear path forward: reconstruct the geo-cultural bridge through education, joint publications, think tank outreach, and media collaboration.
Kazakhstan Expands Kashagan Legal Fight as Arbitration and Claims Mount
For several years, Kazakhstan has been engaged in arbitration proceedings worth billions of dollars, many of which have been conducted behind closed doors. Recently, new details have emerged about one of the largest disputes, involving the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC). The dispute stems from environmental violations identified during a 2022 inspection at the Kashagan field. Environmental authorities found that the operator, NCOC, had stored approximately 1.2 million tons of sulfur in excess of permitted limits. As a result, the company faced a fine of around $5 billion. Kashagan is one of the largest and most technically complex offshore oil fields ever discovered, with proven hydrocarbon reserves estimated at 4.65 billion tons. The consortium includes seven major international energy companies: KazMunayGas (16.88%); Eni (16.81%); Shell (16.81%); ExxonMobil (16.81%); TotalEnergies (16.81%); CNPC (8.33%); and INPEX Ltd (7.56%). A lawsuit was filed by all consortium members except KazMunayGas, Kazakhstan’s national oil company. The field has long been central to Kazakhstan’s oil production and relations with international investors. Kazakhstan’s interests in the Kashagan dispute are represented by the Ministry of Ecology and the Ministry of Justice. According to the Vice Minister of Justice, Daniel Vaisov, a trial court has already ruled in favor of the state. “A first-instance court has ruled in Kazakhstan, recognizing the state’s position as lawful. Six contractors — excluding KazMunayGas — filed an appeal in March,” Vaisov said. NCOC challenged the environmental inspection results. In June 2023, a court in Astana partially upheld the company’s claims. However, this was overturned in February 2024, when an appellate court ruled in favor of the government, confirming the inspection’s legality. Subsequent developments have further complicated the case. In August 2025, an Astana court overturned the environmental agency’s order, citing procedural violations. The case is once again under appeal. At the same time, the contractors have challenged the $5 billion fine through international arbitration. The proceedings are set to take place in Washington at the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), where the arbitral tribunal is currently being formed, Vaisov said. The case is being closely watched as a test of how far Kazakhstan is willing to push legal pressure on major Western energy investors. Separately, Kazakhstan is pursuing much larger claims against Kashagan consortium members under the production-sharing agreement. In May 2024, Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy said claims against Kashagan project developers could reach up to $150 billion. Initially, the government sought $15 billion from NCOC. It later increased its claims by a further $138 billion, citing lost profits linked to oil volumes that investors had committed to supply to the state. The Ministry of Energy has described the dispute as purely commercial, relating to Kazakhstan’s rights under the production-sharing agreement. Officials maintain that the legal proceedings do not affect the investment standing of project participants. Separately, in January last year, an economic court in Astana ordered NCOC to pay 3.5 billion KZT (about $8 million) for excessive flaring of raw gas. In addition to Kashagan, Shell is involved in the Karachaganak oil and gas project. The consortium is led by Eni and Shell, with each holding 29.25%. Other partners include Chevron (18%), Lukoil (13.5%), and KazMunayGas (10%). In January, Shell and its partners lost a separate dispute over cost deductions, with potential payments to Kazakhstan estimated at up to $4 billion. Shell said in February 2026 that it would suspend new investments in Kazakhstan pending the outcome of its legal disputes with the government. At the time, Shell CEO Wael Sawan stated that the volume of claims, amounting to billions of dollars, had dampened the company’s willingness to invest. This position appeared to have been reversed a few weeks later when it signed a contract for geological exploration of the Zhanaturmys site in the Aktobe region. That exploration agreement was signed by Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Energy, Yerlan Akbarov, and Shell’s Senior Vice President and Chair in Kazakhstan, Suzanne Coogan. Experts say that despite ongoing legal disputes and broader geopolitical uncertainty, demand from Western investors for Central Asian oil and gas resources is likely to remain strong.
Kazakhstan Is Rethinking Its Healthcare System, Focusing on Prevention
Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Health has outlined updated investment and development plans for 2023-2027, signaling a shift in the country’s healthcare approach from treating diseases to preventing them, strengthening biosafety, and expanding mental health support. However, some experts warn that the new strategy could have unintended economic consequences, including the reallocation of budget funds toward information campaigns, digital initiatives, and infrastructure projects whose effectiveness may be difficult to assess. One of the key areas of reform is the prevention of noncommunicable diseases. Authorities are considering restrictions on advertising products high in salt, sugar, and trans fats, amid rising childhood obesity rates. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, 21% of children in Kazakhstan aged 6-9 are overweight. Such restrictions could affect the media market. Research by the Institute for Fiscal Studies indicates that bans on advertising unhealthy food can reduce media revenues. In Kazakhstan, this could increase pressure on an industry already subject to limits on advertising alcohol, tobacco, and certain medications. At the same time, the ministry plans to expand public awareness campaigns, including video content and national initiatives such as “Salamatty shanyraq” (“Healthy Family”). Public health research suggests that the effectiveness of such campaigns can be difficult to measure, and their impact on behavior may be limited. Another priority is the creation of a “biological shield” system, including genomic and metagenomic surveillance, as well as the development of domestic pharmaceutical manufacturing. These initiatives are expected to attract up to $380 million in private investment. However, concerns remain about implementation capacity. Previous reports have highlighted inefficient use of medical equipment. In 2024, Health Minister Akmaral Alnazarova stated that expensive equipment in some medical facilities remained unused. In certain regions, shortages of trained specialists and necessary consumables have prevented effective deployment. The third component of the strategy focuses on mental health. Authorities plan to expand the network of specialized centers and introduce the uSupport digital platform to provide online consultations. At the same time, public trust in the state system remains limited. According to official data, individuals with addictions often avoid seeking treatment due to fears of being registered, which could restrict access to employment, education, and driver’s licenses. Experts also highlight the scale of gambling addiction. Estimates suggest that around 350,000 people in Kazakhstan suffer from compulsive gambling, while the growing availability of online casinos and microfinance services continues to contribute to rising household debt. The shift toward a preventive healthcare model aligns with global trends. However, analysts warn that without effective implementation, the reform could result in increased administrative pressure on businesses, inefficient public spending, and limited improvements in health outcomes.
Sunkar Podcast
Central Asia and the Troubled Southern Route
